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Thursday, January 19, 2006

New Bin Laden Tape Should Be Taken Seriously

Osama bin Laden purportedly has issued a new audiotape, offering an undefined "truce" and warning the American people that if they do not force a change in U.S. foreign policy, then he will attack the U.S. again.

May no nitwit wilfully misunderstand me and claim that I support terrorists. I hate bin Laden and wish him dead, dead, dead. And I have said before that America needs to be MORE courageous, not less, in standing up to al Quaeda.

Here, I'm just going on the record with a warning. Under Islamic ethics, a jihadist who is about to attack innocents must give them fair warning and offer a truce. Every major Islamic terror attack against the U.S. (both WTC attacks, the Cole, the embassy) were preceded by messages like this one, offering to negotiate or else.

So I take this seriously. Whether it's really bin Laden or another al Quaeda leader using his name, I predict that there will indeed be a significant, attempted attack on the U.S. or U.S. interests, and I fear that our government, which has spent over four years now with its eye OFF the ball, can do little to stop or mitigate it. If that happens, I will blame bin Laden. But I also will be looking closely at whether the people we elected to protect us fell down on the job. If bin Laden attacks us successfully, it will be their fault, too.

Let's pray that I'm wrong, and that our government, in pretending not to respond to terrorist threats, doesn't take a "called strike" on this one.

SUPPLEMENT, JANUARY 20, 2006: Bolstering my memory that prior attacks were preceded by warnings, that's exactly what terrorism expert Christopher Brown is saying, too. From The New York Sun:

A terrorism analyst in Washington and a fellow at the Hudson Institute, Christopher Brown, said yesterday that Mr. bin Laden's warning of an impending attack may not have been an empty threat, not because of Mr. bin Laden's statements, but because of a January 6 message from Mr. Zawahiri.

According to Mr. Brown, a pattern has emerged over the last eight messages from Mr. Zawahiri whereby every two messages are followed about 30 days later by an Al Qaeda attack - in Saudi Arabia, in London, and in Bali. If the pattern continues, Mr. Brown said, a new attack would be due in about a month. The analyst also pointed to recent postings on Al Qaeda Web sites threatening an imminent attack on "the land of the Romans," which Mr. Brown said could mean Italy or could be a figurative reference to America.
(America, of course, being the new imperial power and Crusader, in bin Laden's symbology.)

And this pleasant news, from

French terrorism investigators reported that an interrogation of al Qaeda suspect Abu Atiya revealed the group had allegedly procured advanced Russian-made man-portable missile systems and ricin, botulin and other toxins from Chechnya.

The missiles, which are especially made to avoid electronics-jamming defense systems, were known to be in Europe but may have been smuggled into the U.S.

So my pessimistic view? Sometime within the next 30 days or so, there will be a major al Quaeda attack, I'm betting either at the Winter Olympics (and intended to kill American athletes along with others) or here in the U.S. An attack connected to the upcoming Italian elections is a distant third.

Now is the time for our government to prove it can do the job. We have been warned, we've had four years to prepare, and there can be no excuses. Will the Bush Administration rise to the task? And if they don't, what will we, the People, do about it?

Damn damn damn, I hope I'm wrong.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

This is all of a piece with the bin Laden compaign commercial of 2004. George Bush is Osama bin Laden's choice for President of the United States and he is doing everything he can to keep him powerful.

What other US President would be so accomodating as to crush our military in an Asian land war and occupation? They need each other and between W letting bin Laden go free and bin Laden filming campaign commercials, we will in fact have them.

I know, I know but am I cynical enough?

CK Dexter Haven

1/19/2006 2:29 PM  
Blogger Jeremy said...

Wow this is very interesting. When I heard the audio tape from the other day the first thing I wondered was the pattern - or what percentage of audio/video releases were actually followed by some sort of terrorist action.

There's also the popular theory that there are hidden messages - even commands, if you will, in the text of the speeches that in and of themselves queue sleeper cells or others who identify with Al Qaeda to trigger an attack.

1/21/2006 11:30 AM  

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